Build a rough 30-day scenario from average stats you enter. This does not use your actual trade history or an exact reviewed TSB Replay.
Enter your win rate, average win/loss, and trading frequency. The result is based on those averages—not your actual trade sequence.
This calculator uses averages you typed in. TSB Replay imports your actual trades, preserves their order, and evaluates one exact reviewed challenge scope without turning this rough estimate into an authoritative result.
Prop firms give traders access to funded accounts — $10k to $200k or more — in exchange for passing a two-phase evaluation. In Phase 1 (the Challenge), you must hit a profit target without breaching daily or total drawdown limits. Pass that, and Phase 2 (Verification) repeats the process with a lower profit target. Pass both, and you trade the firm's capital and keep 70–90% of profits.
The challenge is designed to filter out traders who get lucky once. The combination of a profit target, daily loss limit, and max drawdown requirement means you must be consistently profitable — not just occasionally right.
This calculator runs 500 independent 30-day sequences generated from the averages you enter, then checks the median and 25th-percentile scenarios against a simplified built-in rule model. “Scenario clears” means those generated checkpoints remained inside that model. It is not a Pass, Stall, or Breach result from deterministic Replay.
| Rule | FTMO | TopStep | The5%ers | FundedNext |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily loss limit | 5% | Varies by plan | 4% | 5% |
| Max drawdown | 10% (static) | Trailing EOD | 5% (static) | 10% (static) |
| Profit target (Phase 1) | 10% | 6–10% | 6% | 8% |
| Min trading days | 4 days | None | None | 5 days |
| Consistency rule | None | None | Best day ≤ 50% total | Best day ≤ 40% total |
| Profit split | 80–90% | Up to 90% | Up to 100% | 80–90% |
Note: TopStep focuses on futures, while FTMO, The5%ers, and FundedNext primarily evaluate forex and CFD traders. Rules are for standard challenge plans as of early 2026 — always verify current rules on the firm's website before purchasing a challenge.
The most common question traders ask before attempting a prop firm challenge is "what win rate do I need?" The answer depends entirely on your average reward-to-risk ratio.
Your trade expectancy — the average dollar amount you make per trade — determines whether your edge is real. The formula is:
For a positive expectancy, you need: Win Rate × Avg Win > (1 − Win Rate) × Avg Loss.
Most prop firms require 8–10% profit in 30 days, which on a $100k account is $8,000–$10,000. With 3 trades/day × 30 days = 90 trades, you need roughly $89–$111 average expectancy per trade just to reach target before drawdown limits kick in. Use the calculator above to see how your specific numbers stack up.
If the rough scenarios consistently miss the built-in limits, use that as a prompt to inspect your actual history—not as a diagnosis. Common pressure points include:
The biggest cause of daily loss limit violations. If you're risking 2% per trade and hit three losses in a row, you've hit FTMO's 5% daily limit in one bad morning. Most funded traders risk 0.5–1% per trade maximum, and often less during challenge phases.
Most traders overestimate their average win. They remember the big wins and forget the early exits and breakeven trades that drag the average down. Pull your actual trade history from your broker and calculate the real numbers — then re-run this simulation.
If you have 20 trades of real data, your win rate estimate has a huge margin of error. A 60% win rate from 20 trades could easily be 40% over 200 trades. Only trust statistics from at least 50–100 trades in similar market conditions.
The fastest way to get accurate data is to import your actual trades into a trading journal, calculate your real win rate, R:R, and worst-day drawdown, then come back and plug those numbers into this calculator.
